Stats tell a story.
But stories can be designed to mislead.
I’m sure you’ve seen some variation of the stat this week. Since entering the NFL, Patrick Mahomes-led offenses are 8-0 vs. Vic Fangio defenses. That seems bad for the Eagles chances at winning the Super Bowl.
But what if I told you it paints a picture that isn’t quite applicable for this game? And what if we looked back at all 12 of the Andy Reid vs. Fangio battles over two-plus decades (spanning Reid’s time in Philadelphia and Kansas City, and Fangio’s stops in Indianapolis, Houston, San Francisco, Chicago, Denver and Miami) in the NFL, not just the Mahomes games?
Let’s dive in.
Total yards: 212
Third down: 4-14
Turnovers: 5
Net passing yards: 118
The first ever matchup. Reid was a first-year head coach with little to work with. Fangio and the Colts were having a magical, playoff-caliber year. This was a mismatch.
Total yards: 391
Third down: 8-17
Turnovers: 3
Net passing yards: 289
Reid gets Fangio back. This time Fangio was with an expansion team, while Reid had built the Eagles into the favorite in the NFC. It got ugly.
Total yards: 513
Third down: 5-13
Turnovers: 3
Net passing yards: 405
This one is tricky to call. San Francisco won the game, but the Eagles moved the ball at will. Turnovers killed the Eagles as the stage was set for a disappointing Dream Team season.
Total yards: 265
Third down: 6-11
Turnovers: 1
Net passing yards: 168
Reid's second year as the head coach in Kansas City. Fangio's final season calling the defense for Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco. The pre-Mahomes Chiefs were way, way different.
Total yards: 287
Third down: 5-14
Turnovers: 0
Net passing yards: 170
Alex Smith barely completed 50 percent of his passes. Kansas City lost at home as a nine-point favorite.
Total yards: 271
Third down: 5-15
Turnovers: 0
Net passing yards: 191
The start of the Mahomes-Fangio battle, but one that lost some sizzle when Mahomes came out of the game with an injury. It was finished by Matt Moore, who went 10-of-19. All things considered, it turned into one of Reid's better coaching jobs vs. Fangio.
Total yards: 419
Third down: 6-11
Turnovers: 0
Net passing yards: 327
Mahomes and company lit up Fangio's defense.
Total yards: 286
Third down: 0-8
Turnovers: 1
Net passing yards: 185
If you hold a Reid offense to 0-for-8 on third down, you won the day.
Total yards: 267
Third down: 5-12
Turnovers: 1
Net passing yards: 178
More than good enough effort from the Broncos defense. If only Fangio could have found a quarterback, we might not be talking about this matchup today.
Total yards: 390
Third down: 8-14
Turnovers: 0
Net passing yards: 255
The final game for Fangio as a head coach in Denver.
Total yards: 267
Third down: 3-10
Turnovers: 1
Net passing yards: 174
Defensive game, including a defensive score. Fangio's unit held up and looked poised for postseason success in Miami before late-season injuries derailed the unit.
Total yards: 409
Third down: 6-15
Turnovers: 1
Net passing yards: 262
The lone playoff matchup until now. Kansas City controlled the game in bitter cold. Reid's offense was far more comfortable and made enough plays to beat Fangio.
After going back through each game, my scorecard (outcome of Reid vs. Fangio, not necessarily the game itself) is 6-6. It’s dead even. That’s over decades. So while Mahomes has won eight straight vs. Fangio, the matchup within the matchup feels very even as we get ready for Super Bowl 59.
Will the referees favor the Chiefs on Sunday? I don’t buy it.
Ross Tucker joined us live from Radio Row to give his take.
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