Day 1 of Decision Week on 94 WIP was a doozy.

For me, the debate about a potential contract extension for Jalen Hurts this offseason was simple. No. No way. Not a shot. I’d be shocked if Howie Roseman did it. It would be organizational malpractice.

Others saw it differently—with very strong emotions mixed in.

As we discussed on the WIP Midday Show, most in support of a Hurts extension were using the past to predict the future. While I understand that sentiment, I don’t think it works for Hurts or most quarterbacks.

Here’s why.

Jalen Hurts is 57-25 as a starting quarterback in the NFL. That’s great. He’s been to the playoffs each years as a full-time starter. He’s a winner. We all know it.

But does that mean it will continue if Hurts’ talent level and play continues to decline? Of course not.

Here’s a win-loss record before and after decline for some pretty famous quarterbacks over the years.

Donovan McNabb

First six years: 56-23

Rest of career: 42-39-1

Carson Wentz

First four years: 32-24

Rest of career: 17-25-1

Russell Wilson

First nine years: 98-45-1

Since: 23-35

Steve McNair

First nine years: 69-40

Rest of career: 22-22

The lesson? When it goes, it goes. Winners are winners until they aren’t good enough to help a team win any longer.

I equate quarterbacks to pitchers in baseball. Some last for 20 years. Some flame out fast. You need to use your eyes to predict where the trajectory is going, not simply what has happened in the past.

I’m a “no” on a Hurts extension because I believe we’ve seen his best football.

Where do you come down?

I talked about A.J. Brown’s trade value on WIP Daily. Listen here.

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